Broadly speaking, there are three kinds of change agents in Nigeria of today and the future of Nigerian politics will be greatly determined by the influence of one or a combination of these change agents.
The three change agents in Nigeria today are;
1- The Federalists
2- The Secessionists
3- The Fundamentalists (Unitarists or Unitarians).
Both 1 & 2 above can be categorized as structuralists while the third group can be seen as fundamentalists.
These people believe that Nigeria has a structural problem and that the solution is to restructure Nigeria and entrench true federalism. People and groups in this category includes; South West APC leaders, Afenifere group, The Federalist Movement of Nigeria, NADECO, PRONACO, Niger Delta militant groups, Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, Sen. Ike Ekweremadu, and a host of millions of other individuals and tens of other groups (including intellectual and militant groups). Majority of the Southern states of Nigeria are Federalist in orientation.
These people believe that Nigeria is both a fraud and a lie and that the only way out is to disintegrate the country and allow everyone go their separate ways. They believe a lie cannot be restructured and therefore many of secessionists oppose the Federalist approach and call for a complete division of the country. People and groups in this category includes IPOB, MOSSOB, Niger Delta Militants, and millions of people from the Igbo and other Southern tribes of Nigeria.
The Fundamentalists (Unitarist)-
These change agents believe that the problem with Nigeria is bad leadership, corruption and Nigerians. They believe that if we get good leaders, fight corruption and reorient Nigerians, all will be well with Nigeria. Many people in this category oppose the secessionists and the Federalist approach. People and groups in this category includes; President Buhari, the ruling APC party, majority of Northern Nigerian states and millions of Nigerians from every part of Nigeria. The Hausa/Fulani tribe are a major backbone of the Fundamentalists/Unitarist movement. They are united in maintaining the unitary status quo and have successfully mobilized other Nigerians to support the cause.
In other to achieve their aims, the three set of change agents above have adopted various strategies.
The Federalists are not united in their approach towards getting a restructured Nigeria. While some groups and individuals believe in intellectual engagements, some others believe in a more radical approach. For example, the Niger Delta militants believe that the only language the federal govt understands is violence and as such, they will use violence to get a restructured system. The groups like Afenifere and other intellectual groups have resorted to harsh criticisms and intellectual engagements as their style. They all want a restructured Nigeria based on true federalism.
The secessionists are embarking on mass protests and using both conventional and diplomatic means to get their message to the world stage. They have an effective propaganda mechanism which is spreading their campaign across the globe.
The fundamentalists are relying on the efforts of President Buhari and his anti-corruption fight to prove their case that what Nigeria needs is a good leader and a reorientation of Nigerians. They recently launched a campaign tagged ‘Change Begins With Me’ to drive home their point. The future of their movement and cause will be greatly determined by the success or failure of President Buhari.
The future of Nigeria will likely be determined by these forces.
I am a Federalist because I believe Nigeria has a structural problem. I am a change agent for true federalism and I believe change begins with restructuring Nigeria.
What kind of Change Agent are you and what are you doing to change the future of Nigeria?